Recently released government projections for the engineering workforce up to May 2023 indicate that, depending on the Unit Group, the market will be at best subdued and at worst poor.
The predictions for the workforce size of engineering Unit Groups by the Department of Jobs and Small Business (DJSB) can be found here under ‘Occupation projections’: http://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/EmploymentProjections and in graphical form here: https://engineeroversupply.weebly.com/workforce.html The predicted annual growth rate over the next five years for each of the seven engineering Unit Groups is: 2331 Chemical and Materials Engineers 2.1% per annum 2332 Civil Engineering Professionals 2.6% per annum 2333 Electrical Engineers -0.5% per annum 2334 Electronics Engineers -1.0% per annum 2335 Industrial, Mech. and Prod. Engineers -1.5% per annum 2336 Mining Engineers -1.2% per annum 2339 Other Engineering Professionals 3.2% per annum The predicted overall growth rate for ANZSCO Minor Group 233 ‘Engineering Professionals’ is 1.0% per annum. Compared with last year’s projections, the outlook has worsened for Mining Engineers; Industrial, Mechanical and Production Engineers; Electronics Engineers; Electrical Engineers; and Civil Engineering Professionals, although for this latter group the expected growth rate is still positive. The outlook has improved for Other Engineering Professionals, which is a mixed group of unrelated engineering occupations. It has also improved for Chemical and Materials Engineers. It should be noted that it is almost impossible to predict the workforce size for individual occupations or Unit Groups more than two years in advance, as can be seen from the graphs of DJSB predictions for the last three years at: https://engineeroversupply.weebly.com/workforce.html In September 2018, the Department of Jobs and Small Business (DJSB) released the results of its annual survey of employers about their recruitment experiences. This survey is used by the DJSB to determine whether selected occupations do or do not have a shortage of skills. The findings were that after five years of no skills shortages, there are now widespread shortages of appropriately qualified and experienced civil engineering professionals in Australia; shortages of appropriately qualified and experienced mechanical engineers in two States; and no shortages of either electrical or mining engineers. Other engineering occupations were not evaluated. See:
docs.jobs.gov.au/collections/engineering-professions-labour-market-research-reports According to DJSB, demand for civil engineering professionals has been driven by strong non-residential and infrastructure construction. This has been gathering pace over the last couple of years and, as assessed by the author of this website, civil engineering professionals have experienced the least oversupply. The localised shortage of mechanical engineers is in the context of increased demand from the manufacturing and construction industries in NSW, and from engineering and building construction in South Australia. Although the number of applicants per engineering vacancy has decreased over the last two years, engineering vacancies still attract more applications than most other professions. See: engineeroversupply.weebly.com/applicants.html The general comment from DJSB was that engineering vacancies received large numbers of qualified candidates, but that 80% of these were deemed unsuitable by employers. This was primarily because applicants had insufficient experience in the industry sector or specialisation relating to the job, or they lacked the employability skills (eg. communications skills) required to do the job. In its Skill Shortage Research Methodology available at docs.jobs.gov.au/documents/skill-shortage-research-methodology-0 DJSB notes that: “The research provides an indication of employers’ experience recruiting skilled workers at a particular time. The labour market can change quickly and employers’ needs may be very specific in terms of the breadth and depth of skills and experience. Shortages are typically for specialised and experienced workers, and can co-exist with relatively high unemployment overall or within the occupation. A rating of shortage does not mean that every job seeker in that occupation will readily find employment, even if they have relevant skills and experience.” This is consistent with skill shortages emerging in a hugely oversupplied engineering labour market. Most migrant engineers are brought in on the subclass 189 skilled independent ‘population-booster’ visa. They are not required to have any particular amount of experience in any particular industry, and they are not required to live in any particular location. In contrast, employers need engineers with experience in specific industries who are available to work in specific locations. Employers have always had access to the subclass 457 visa (now replaced by the subclass 482 visa), and they still do. They should be addressing skills shortages through the use of this visa. The other side of the coin is that in a labour market which is significantly skewed in favour of employers, those same employers become increasingly fussy about satisfying long wish-lists of desirable qualities for successful job candidates, who ideally need no training in any aspect of the job. The evidence is that an employer’s definition of ‘suitable’ for job applicants depends very much on labour market conditions. In an environment where skill shortages exist, over time engineering employers tend to relax stringent role requirements and find a higher proportion of applicants to be ‘suitable’. It is not until engineering migration is restricted to employer-nominated visas (the subclass 482 temporary visa and the subclass 186 permanent visa) that the oversupply of the engineering labour market will stop. The significant number of Australian and migrant engineers who are currently unemployed or displaced from their profession, and who want to return to their profession, will have the best chance of being absorbed back into engineering when the subclass 189, 190, 476, 485 and 489 visas are no longer open for engineering immigration. |
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November 2018
CategoriesAuthorJim Oakley |